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CMS Strategy Weekly (11 Feb 2019) - Macro data diverged in both China and US; Trade negotiation uncertainty looms

作者: Jessie GUO,Edith Qian
时间: 2019年02月11日
重要性: 一般报告
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摘要: Report title:CMS Strategy Weekly (11 Feb 2019) - Macro data diverged in both China and US; Trade negotiation uncertainty looms
Analyst:Jessie GUO,Edith Qian
Report type:Strategy
Date:20190211
[Summary]

■ China and US will hold trade talks in Beijing from Feb 14 to 15
■ China January official and Caixin PMI data diverged
■ US labour market remained strong while non-mfg PMI softened

What’s new. 1). Trade negotiation: China and US will hold high-level trade talks from Feb 14 to 15 in Beijing, led by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The US working team will arrive in Beijing on Feb 11. US President Donald Trump said he won’t meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the Mar 1 deadline. In his State of the Union address delivered on Feb 5, Trump said “we are now working on a new trade deal with China”, but the deal “must include real, structural change to end unfair trade practices, reduce our chronic trade deficit, and protect American jobs”. White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said that “the President has indicated that he’s optimistic with respect to a potential trade deal, but we’ve got a pretty sizable distance to go here”. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the talks with China have been “very productive” while “a wide range of issues” remain to be worked out. 2). On Jan 30, CSRC and Shanghai Stock Exchange issued detailed rules regarding the Science and Technology Innovation Board. 3). Stock Connect Northbound trading brought in a net capital inflow of RMB60.7bn, the highest single month since the launch of the Stock Connect Scheme.

Macro data. China: Jan official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5 and 54.7 respectively, an uptick from 49.4 and 53.8 in Dec. However, Caixin manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3 and 53.6 respectively, from 49.7 and 53.9 in Dec. US: Nov trade deficit narrowed to US$49.3bn (Oct: US$55.7bn), more than street expectation. Jan non-farm payrolls surged to 304,000 despite a partial government shutdown, beating consensus. Jan ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 56.6 (Dec: 54.3), beating expectations. However, Jan ISM non-manufacturing PMI softened to 56.7 (Dec: 58.0), below consensus.

Stock market update. MXCN/HSI/CSI300 gained by 2.1%/1.4%/2.0% over the past two weeks. MXCN: Real Estate (+8.9%) and Materials (+4.8%) outperformed while Utilities (-1.5%) and Energy (-0.1%) lagged over the past two weeks. A share: Insurance (+3.0%), Real Estate (+2.2%) and Banks (+2.1%) outperformed while Telecom (-1.8%) and Industrials (-1.6%) lagged over the past two weeks. MXCN/HSI/CSI300 trade at forward P/E of 11.3x/10.9x/10.5x respectively (at par or below 5-yr median).

Our view. HK market (HSI) rallied 11% from 30 Oct 2018 trough and reached interval peak on 4 Dec 2018. The market then corrected by 8% and rallied again by 11% since 3 Jan 2019 trough till now. While approaching earnings season and in the face of uncertainties related to trade negotiation, we remind investors of near-term risks. Key risks to watch: profit taking pressure after recent rally; poor macro data; potential pullback of US market; re-escalation of US/China trade tension if the two countries fail to reach a deal before early March; higher than expected USD strengthening. Key catalysts: China introduces more easing policy; bilateral solution between US and China; weakening of USD.

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